Claremore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS64 KTSA 231846
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
146 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

 - The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding are the main
   concerns in the near term as the unsettled weather pattern
   continues.

 - Confidence remains high that the unsettled weather pattern is
   likely to stick around for much of this week, however
   confidence is much lower with the specifics, such as timing and
   placement of rain/storm chances and rain amounts.

 - A more typical summer time ridge of high pressure aloft is
   expected to build over the region as we head into next week.
   Heat headlines will likely be needed at some point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

We started this morning with slow-moving storms down near the Red
River in the vicinity of a boundary that was left over from the
previous day MCS. The latest surface analysis indicates that this
boundary has lifted north or is in the process of washing out,
with 70s dewpoints overspreading the region. Storm coverage has
increased across E OK through the day. We have seen some observed
very heavy rainfall down in the Antlers area, and this remains
possible through the afternoon with any slow-moving storms. The
models, especially the CAMs such as the HRRR, have not had a good
handle with the ongoing MCS over far western OK into the TX
Panhandle, which has affected the activity farther to its north
that was supposed to be another MCS this evening into our area. A
recurring theme that has showed up in recent runs is for
redevelopment to occur in a warm advection regime late tonight to
our northwest over western KS and vicinity, with potential for
this to come southeast as an MCS into Wednesday morning in the NW
flow aloft. With the potential for multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall across eastern OK, a short fused Flood Watch has been
issued for eastern OK through tomorrow morning. This can be
modified and/or extended if need be, especially if the Wednesday
morning MCS pans out.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

If the Wednesday morning MCS pans out, there will likely be
relative lull in the activity Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another potential MCS could affect NE OK and NW AR Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. An east-west boundary is expected to set up
near the KS/MO border toward the end of the week, with additional
rounds of storms expected near and north of this boundary as the
upper flow becomes more zonal with the ridge to our west
de-amplifying.

For the weekend into next week, a deep trough is expected to
develop over the western CONUS, which will force downstream
ridging aloft initially over the Mississippi Valley and then over
the Plains. As such, expect an end to the unsettled weather
pattern and a shift toward hot, humid and dry weather. The current
forecast has afternoon heat indices near advisory levels during
the first half of next week, and headlines may be needed.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered/broken MVFR ceilings along with convection will remain
forecast through this afternoon and into this evening across much
of the CWA. Ceilings this evening look to become mostly VFR, while
at the same time additional shower/storm chances continue into the
overnight hours. Will add Prob30 groups for general timing of
greater potential. Within the convection, MVFR conditions, gusty
winds and heavy rainfall are possible. Late tonight into Wednesday
morning, IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to redevelop over much
of the CWA with precip chances still possible. These conditions
look to improve back to VFR toward the end of the TAF period with
the precip chances beginning to weaken from west to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  71  85  71 /  70  70  60  60
FSM   83  71  87  72 /  50  60  70  30
MLC   84  73  89  74 /  60  50  50  20
BVO   79  68  84  68 /  60  70  60  60
FYV   80  68  83  69 /  50  60  70  30
BYV   79  66  83  67 /  40  60  60  50
MKO   82  70  85  71 /  60  60  60  30
MIO   80  68  84  68 /  50  60  60  60
F10   83  70  86  71 /  60  60  50  20
HHW   85  73  90  74 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ049-053-055>057-
     059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20